- MSCI-tracking funds may need to sell an estimated 13 million Strategy shares, equal to about 3.1% of shares outstanding.
- The potential selling represents less than one typical trading day and is valued at roughly $1.6 billion based on Wednesday’s prices.
- Analysts warn that reduced passive index demand could pressure Strategy’s mNAV premium and slow future Bitcoin purchases.
MSCI-Tracking Funds Could Sell 13 Million Strategy Shares
Funds tracking MSCI indexes would need to sell an estimated 13 million shares of Strategy, equivalent to approximately 3.1% of the company’s shares outstanding, according to an X post. “MSCI-tracking funds would need to sell an estimated 13M shares, roughly 3.1% of shares outstanding and less than one day’s typical trading volume,” it said in an X post.
The estimate is consistent with Strategy’s own analysis submitted in response to MSCI’s consultation. Strategy said funds tracking MSCI’s global investable indexes hold about 13 million of its shares, or 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding. The position represents less than one day of Strategy’s typical trading volume and was worth approximately $1.6 billion at Wednesday’s prices.
JPMorgan Estimates Potential Index-Related Outflows
JPMorgan offered a larger estimate in November 2025, projecting that MSCI’s exclusion could result in about $2.8 billion in outflows. The bank said the total could increase to $8.8 billion if other major index providers made similar decisions. However, JPMorgan’s forecast was based on an initial MSCI proposal rather than the final rules adopted in the review.
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The potential impact extends beyond one-time share sales. Analysts are focused on whether the loss of passive index demand could affect how Strategy raises capital to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. Strategy’s business model relies heavily on capital raising to finance its acquisition of Bitcoin, making the company’s share valuation an important factor in its ability to continue accumulating the cryptocurrency.
How Lower Passive Demand Could Affect Bitcoin Purchases
“The bigger risk is Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model. Strategy relies heavily on capital raising to fund $BTC purchases. Losing passive index demand could put further pressure on its mNAV premium, already near 1.08x. A shrinking premium makes new equity issuance less accretive, potentially slowing future Bitcoin accumulation,” BloFin Research explained.
mNAV measures how the market values Strategy relative to the value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings. When mNAV is above 1, investors are valuing Strategy’s shares at more than the value of its Bitcoin holdings. An mNAV below 1 indicates that the market value of the shares is lower than the value of the company’s Bitcoin stash.
Why This Matters
Strategy’s ability to issue equity on attractive terms is closely linked to its mNAV premium and investor demand for its shares. If index-related selling reduces passive demand and puts further pressure on the premium, new share issuance could become less accretive. That could make it more difficult for Strategy to maintain the pace of future Bitcoin purchases, although the reported estimates differ depending on whether they reflect MSCI’s initial proposal or its final rules.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Strategy shares could MSCI-tracking funds sell?
The estimates cited in the source indicate that MSCI-tracking funds could sell about 13 million Strategy shares, equal to roughly 3.1% of shares outstanding.
How much could the potential selling be worth?
The 13 million shares were worth approximately $1.6 billion at Wednesday’s prices and represented less than one day of Strategy’s typical trading volume.
Why could MSCI-related selling affect Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases?
Strategy relies on capital raising to fund Bitcoin purchases. Reduced passive index demand could pressure its mNAV premium, making future equity issuance less accretive and potentially slowing Bitcoin accumulation.
