Key Highlights: Binance Research identified a -0.62 negative correlation between six-month changes in the global monetary policy diffusion index and Bitcoin’s six-month returns since 2021. Historical market cycles indicate that Bitcoin often bottoms and recovers before major G10 central banks officially start cutting interest rates. While global monetary easing has not fully materialized, a slowdown ...
Key Highlights: Binance Research identifies a negative 0.62 correlation between changes in the central bank diffusion index and Bitcoin’s six-month returns since 2021, revealing that slowing tightening momentum historically benefits BTC. While an upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision and elevated Treasury yields near 5% present near-term risks, peak tightening momentum has previously marked cyclical turnarounds ...
Key Highlights: Bank for International Settlements (BIS) research found roughly 70% of tracked fiat currencies have been discontinued, typically due to economic causes. Despite crypto advocates using this data to bolster Bitcoin’s fixed-supply thesis, the BIS explicitly declared that Bitcoin rejects the social compact that money embodies. The BIS maintains that functional money requires credit ...
Key Highlights BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that Bitcoin is likely to face continued weakness until dollar liquidity conditions improve. Hayes emphasized that a sustained cryptocurrency rally requires either the Federal Reserve or commercial banks to actively expand their balance sheets. His macroeconomic framework points to central bank asset purchases and institutional credit creation as ...
Key Highlights The Federal Reserve signaled ongoing economic resilience, projecting third-quarter GDP growth could exceed 3% alongside strong capital investment. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh addressed inflation dynamics, reaffirming a strict 2% PCE price stability target under a “new monetary therapy.” Significant structural changes to the FOMC meeting and voting schedule were outlined for upcoming years, ...
Key Highlights: The Federal Reserve upgraded its view of United States economic growth, shifting its language from economic activity expanding “at a solid pace” to continuing “at a strong pace.” Policymakers removed forward-looking language asserting that rate decisions would return inflation to the 2% target more quickly, pivoting to a data-dependent stance. Despite heightened uncertainties ...
Key Highlights: Financial markets price in a 90.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in October, compared to a 10% chance of a 0.25 percentage point hike. Internal Fed divisions persist: Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams advocate for patience, while other regional presidents warn further ...
Key Highlights: Market sentiment has dramatically pivoted, with expectations of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at the October meeting rising above 90%, compared to a 64.2% rate-hike probability seen on September 25. Pricing for the December 9 meeting signals further tightening, with CME FedWatch indicating a combined 74.2% probability that benchmark rates will ...
Key Highlights Hotter-than-expected September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are dampening expectations for Federal Reserve monetary easing. Market pricing reflects a 90.6% probability that interest rates will stay unchanged in October, alongside a 68.8% chance of an interest rate hike in December. CoinShares notes that while spot demand supports Bitcoin, macroeconomic headwinds such as ...
Key Highlights: Consumer prices climbed 3.7% year-over-year through September, powered by a 0.6% monthly surge fueled by energy costs linked to the war with Iran. Market expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve have spiked across CME FedWatch and prediction markets like Polymarket and Myriad ahead of the October 28 policy decision. ...
Key Highlights Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.6% year-over-year, beating expectations and driving odds of an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike to between 44% and 49%. Surging Treasury yields and macroeconomic pressure triggered over $281 million in total crypto liquidations across 24 hours, heavily impacting leveraged Bitcoin long positions. Bitcoin traded near $82,211 ...
Key Highlights: Hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data has sharply elevated market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening. CME FedWatch pricing shows the odds of an October 25-basis-point rate hike surging to 49.3%, while the likelihood of rates holding steady dropped to 50.7%. Bank of America analysts, as reported by CNBC, now forecast that ...